China Automotive Systems (CAAS) to Release Second Quarter Results: Wall Street Expects Profit Growth – August 6, 2021


Wall Street expects year-over-year profit increases on higher revenues when China Automotive Systems (CAAS Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2021. While this widely known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company’s earnings, one powerful factor that could affect its stock price in the near term is how actual results compare to those estimates.

The earnings report could help the stock rise if these key figures are better than expected. On the other hand, if they run out, the stock may go down.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future profit expectations will primarily depend on management’s discussion of trading conditions when calling profits, it is worth crippling the likelihood of a positive surprise from the market. BPA.

Zacks consensus estimate

This auto parts supplier is expected to post quarterly earnings of $ 0.07 per share in its next report, which represents a year-over-year change of + 153.9%.

Revenue is expected to reach $ 118.18 million, up 42.1% from the previous year quarter.

Trend of estimated revisions

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. This essentially reflects how hedge analysts collectively reassessed their initial estimates during this time period.

Investors should be aware that the direction of revisions to estimates by individual hedge analysts may not always be reflected in the overall change.

Price, consensus and EPS Surprise

Whisper of gains

Revisions to estimates before a company’s results are released provide clues to economic conditions for the period in which the results are published. This idea is at the heart of our exclusive surprise prediction model – the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

Zacks Earnings ESP compares the most accurate estimate to Zacks’ consensus estimate for the quarter; most accurate estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates just before the results are released have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than they and other consensus contributors predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading of earnings theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive ESP on earnings is a good predictor of a pace of earnings, especially when combined with a Zacks # 1 (strong buy), 2 (buy), or 3 (hold) ranking. Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce positive surprise almost 70% of the time, and a strong Zacks ranking actually increases the predictive power of ESP for earnings.

Please note that a negative ESP reading of earnings is not indicative of a shortfall. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict a profit beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative earnings ESP readings and / or a Zacks ranking of 4 (sell) or 5 (strong sell).

How have the numbers evolved for Chinese automotive systems?

For China Automotive Systems, the most accurate estimate is the same as Zacks’ consensus estimate, which suggests that there are no recent analyst opinions that differ from what was considered for derive the consensus estimate. This resulted in an ESP on earnings of 0%.

On the flip side, the action currently carries a Zacks rank of # 4.

Thus, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that China Automotive Systems will exceed the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of earnings surprises contain a clue?

Analysts often look at how well a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for future profits. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its influence on the upcoming issue.

For the last published quarter, China Automotive Systems was expected to post a profit of $ 0.03 per share when it actually produced a profit of $ 0.10, delivering a surprise of + 233.33% .

In the past four quarters, the company has twice beaten consensus EPS estimates.

Final result

A beat or failure in profits may not be the only basis for a stock to move higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite declining earnings due to other factors that disappoint investors. Likewise, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks win despite a shortfall.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed profit expectations increases the chances of success. That’s why it’s worth checking out a company’s ESP results and Zacks rankings ahead of its quarterly release. Be sure to use our ESP Earnings Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they get published.

China Automotive Systems does not appear to be a compelling candidate in terms of earnings. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors when betting on this stock or staying on the sidelines before its results are released.

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